Social Democrats Suffer Sweeping Losses in Danish Municipal Elections

Tuesday's municipal and regional elections delivered a resounding rebuke to Denmark's Social Democrats, marking the end of their 87-year dominance in Copenhagen and precipitating a broader erosion of support that, while leaving them Denmark's largest party by vote share, has ceded mayoral supremacy to their center-right rival Venstre.

The loss of Copenhagen carries profound symbolic weight. Since the current administrative system's introduction in 1938, the capital has been an impregnable Social Democrat bastion. That era concluded decisively when Sisse Marie Welling from SF (Socialist People's Party) secured the position of lord mayor, declaring with evident satisfaction: "We have written history at city hall." Her victory came despite SF finishing second with 17.9% of the vote, behind the Red-Green Alliance's 22.1%, underscoring the complex coalition dynamics that characterize Danish municipal politics.

The Social Democrat candidate, Pernille Rosenkrantz-Theil—widely perceived as Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen's hand-picked choice—witnessed her party's support in Copenhagen collapse from 17.2% in 2021 to a dismal 12.7%. Her concession speech struck a defiant note: "Copenhagen is worth fighting for, and I knew from the start that I was taking a big risk. I wasn't invited and wasn't allowed in."

Nationally, the electoral arithmetic reveals a paradox. The Social Democrats remain Denmark's largest party, securing 23.2% of the nationwide vote. Yet this represents a precipitous decline of 5.2 percentage points from 2021's 28.4%, translating into the loss of 156 council seats. More consequentially for local governance, Venstre has overtaken them as the dominant mayoral party, securing 39 posts against the Social Democrats' 25, with 12 municipalities still negotiating coalition agreements. This reverses the 2021 outcome, when the Social Democrats won 44 mayoralties to Venstre's 34.

Venstre's ascendancy is particularly notable given that it too experienced electoral decline, dropping 3.3 percentage points to 17.9% of the national vote. However, its strategic positioning in coalition negotiations—exploiting fragmentation on the left and building bridges across the political spectrum—has proven decisive in capturing mayoral positions.

Prime Minister Frederiksen confronted the results with characteristic resilience. "We had expected to go back, but it seems that the decline is greater than we had expected," she acknowledged, while categorically rejecting suggestions that the formation of her broad governing coalition—which includes parties from across the political spectrum—had contributed to the losses. Taking personal responsibility, she stated: "I always take responsibility for what happens in the Social Democrats. Naturally, I do so today as well."

Frederiksen's diagnosis of the electoral reversal centered on economic anxieties and social tensions. She cited rising food prices, growing disparities between rural and urban constituencies, and crime perpetrated by "people coming from outside"—a formulation that underscores her unwavering commitment to hardline immigration policies. This stance, while consolidating support in some quarters, has been identified by analysts as a key factor alienating urban progressives, particularly in Copenhagen, where voter fatigue with such positioning appears to have reached a tipping point.

Despite the aggregate losses, the Social Democrats demonstrated resilience in Denmark's major urban centers beyond Copenhagen. Anders Winnerskjold secured a broad coalition in Aarhus, Peter Rahbæk Juel achieved the rare feat of unanimous party support in Odense, and the party retained Aalborg and Frederiksberg, albeit with eroded vote shares. Lasse Frimand Jensen's retention of Aalborg is particularly noteworthy given that Social Democrat support there fell 4.7 percentage points from 2021 and a steep 16.5 points from its 2017 peak.

However, the party's losses in previously dependable municipalities—Frederikshavn, Køge, Fredericia, Gladsaxe, and Holstebro—signal a concerning erosion of its traditional base, suggesting that discontent extends beyond metropolitan liberal enclaves to encompass provincial strongholds.

Voter engagement demonstrated healthy democratic vitality, with turnout rising to 69.2% from 67.5% in 2021, indicating that these contests resonated with the electorate.

Regional elections reinforced the broader rightward trend. Only the newly constituted Region Østdanmark—formed through the merger of Region Hovedstaden and Region Sjæland—will be led by a Social Democrat, Lars Gaardhøj. In Central Denmark, Anders G. Christensen from Venstre displaced longtime Social Democrat incumbent Anders Kühnau, who had chaired the region since 2018, despite the Social Democrats remaining the largest party with 23.9% of the vote. The coalition that secured Christensen's victory—comprising Venstre, SF, and the Radicals—reflects the ideological fluidity characterizing Danish regional politics. North Jutland and South Denmark also opted for Venstre leadership.

Peter Thisted Dinesen, professor of political science at the University of Copenhagen, characterized the outcome as "a big loss for the Social Democrats across the whole party" and "very hurtful for the party losing several key bastions including Copenhagen." While suggesting that Frederiksen's position as prime minister remains secure for now, he predicted the results would "clearly prompt analyses and discussions of the causes," hinting at potential internal recriminations and strategic reassessments within the party.